Trade Goes Against You
Expecting a miracle? It probably will not happen. This article is written to deal with trying to trade out of a losing position, NOT to ignore stop losses. Ignoring stops is the surest way in the world to take all the money in your account and just flush it down the toilet. I am serious. While that might help you in the short run eventually there is a 100% chance you will have a massive loss, like 50% or more on your money lost that is invested in the trade if you don’t use a stop. In addition, you will accumulate a portfolio of losing positions and have no more money to trade with. Every huge loss starts with the trader refusing to take a small loss – often times as a result of taking a loss or a stopout and then watching the stock turn in their favor. So the thinking is “They are not gonna get me this timeâ€. This is how traders learn to trade with bad habits.
The first thing to realize, there are 4 reasons losses that can happen when you are in a day trading or swing trading.
1. Timing is off on the entry
2. The direction you think the stock will move is just wrong
3. News items come out and move stock or index against you
4. Your price target to exit is too far away
We will address these one by one.
1. Timing is off on the entry
If your entry timing is off, this usualy means the price will move a bit in your favor, then against you within the first 5 to 10 minutes. The amount the price moves against you will be way more than any profit so far, but it does not go to the stop area either. This can be identified by the price hesitating and moving up and down, just below your price for long or just above for short. It should not make a beeline against you and it should not go right near your stop in the first few minutes.
The easiest way to deal with this happening is to assume that your timing is going to be off. Enter long or short only one half to two-thirds the actual size you want in a position where you think the timing is right. To make sure this never happens, do not use market orders. Place a limit slightly below the current market quote, most of the time you will have no trouble getting filled. Obviously you need to be aware of the trade type – if it’s a breakout and you don’t think you will get filled if you don’t use market, then for sure just go in. Most trades will not just run immediate, including breakouts. Once you receive a fill back, make sure you place an initial stop loss for that position. Wait a few minutes and see what the stock price does. If it runs in your favor immediately, well then your timing was perfect – trade what you have OR look for the remainder on a small dip.
Most of the time the best deal is to stick with day trading what you have. If the stock moves against you more than for you in the first 5 minutes, but is not a beeline against you (meaning it looks like the trade will stop out etc), then put in an order to add at the low of this 5 minutes (for long) or the high (for shorts). If you are an aggressive trader, you can put in some additional orders and press bets above the high for longs or below the low for shorts. If you are not able to get filled on your better price add shares, the press bets additional shares will usually work out because this means there is not much selling. If the price moves so that you can add at a better price, then make sure you cancel the press bets add shares. If you get filled on your additional shares, you can move your stop down slightly but increase to include all shares OR just place a separate stop on teh add. If you get the press bets add, move your initial stop up to just below that low of the 5 minutes, and make sure you increase the shares.
2. You are dead wrong on the direction
This often happens to even the most seasoned traders. You try a breakout that fails, you try to catch a turn at the bottom of a downtrend, you think a stock will follow another stock with bad news down … the common element is you are dead wrong. Usually these types of trades will be self evident from the get go – meaning within a few minutes its already far further against you than it ever went for you AND it does not oscillate. By this I mean the upside is severely limited (for longs) or downside limited (for shorts). This means it can move easily one direction, but really, really struggles in the direction you bet.
Usually if you see this happening, the only chance you have is to try to double down near your stop. You are looking to risk another 15c to 20c on double size, betting it will turn in your favor before you stop out. If you want to attempt this, care must be taken to use discipline. Do not try to force making money on the trade. The thinking is to try to minimize the loss by catching a turn near the stop area, with minimal risk on the add. If you can cut the loss in half or even get to even, get out. Move on to the next trade.
If you doubled down and actually caught the turn, you would want to move the stop up on all to just below the turn. When the price moves halfway back from your secondary add position to the price of your first entry, sell the additional shares so you are left with only your original position. On the additional shares you want to keep you stop to just below that entry. The theory is the side that was pushing the price so far against you finally got washed out, so give the rest a shot. Because you made a bunch back with the added shares, if you get stopped you will lose less than if you did not do that. It is your call to decide if that is the best thing or to just exit all of the position with a minor loss and move on.
3. News events happen in real time and can cause the stock or index to move against you sharply
This is arguably a tough situation. Not only do you have to be able to read and analyze the news very quickly, you must decide what impact it will have on the stock price. The call is would this type of news cause the stock price to go far enough to hit the stop level? If the answer is probably yes, exiting at market before the stop will save you money. If you think there is a chance the news would not stop you out, the plan is to exit the position on a counter move the other way. Most of the time there is no good way to add shares to trade out of a news play where you get caught. Occasionally the market will react in way A, but a few minutes later they realize they are wrong (or someone made a bad assessment, and the market is changing its mind) and react in way B. If you can uncover and notice that this will probably happen, the add point is the high of the bar where the news came out. Most of the time that will run any stops and trap traders playing the news as a quick trade, forcing them out.
4. Your price target to exit is too far away
This is common to. You have to kind of guess based on how the stock has been trading, localized volatility, and support resistance points where a price move might go to. It is very common to think it can move to A, but it struggles to get to even half of A. Usually these types if you don’t monitor them real close will turn into losing trades. The main reason is a scale up seller (for long bets) or scale down buyer (for short bets) is betting the other direction and absorbing a lot of the volume.
Most chart setups will attract trader attention and the more obvious a trade looks but does not work or really struggles, the bigger th indication is to get out immediately. Some of these can result in a huge move the other way because they trap lots of short term money in the stock trying to trade whatever setup happened. There is no real method to add to work your way out of it, you really just need to pay attention. If the stock appear
s weak (meaning it should be going up but its not) and you think you should exit – usually this is the right thing to do. Your instincts are telling you something important – for the trade setup, the stock is not trading like it. Getting out is the best solution because you are looking to avoid your stop getting hit and saving a bigger loss. Also realize if you exit early, and then see it was a mistake, you can always get back in with a click of the button.
Do not expect to make money on every trade, its simply not possible – you have to pick your battles. If you sense something is off or wrong and you are at a loss, take the loss and move on. Sticking around and trying to always make money will actually result in bigger losses eventually. You can think of the God rule (just a catchphrase) – When a trade goes wrong, (God) gives you one chance to get out – it’s up to you to realize the chance and take it.